Tangent: UK Court Rules Craig Wright Is, In Fact… Just Another “Fake-Toshi.”

Today in the UK, the sitting trial level court has ruled that the evidence “overwhelmingly” establishes Mr. Wright is not Satoshi. The judge ruled orally from the bench today, as follows:

“…Wright is not the author of the Bitcoin white paper.

Second, Dr. Wright is not the person who adopted or operated under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto in the period 2008 to 2011.

Third, Dr. Wright is not the person who created the Bitcoin System.

And, fourth, he is not the author of the initial versions of the Bitcoin software.

Any further relief will be dealt with in my written judgment….”

Scant surprise, there — just as he was an over $146 million loser in the Florida federal courts, and was widely suspected of having forged a so-called “Tulip Trust” document. So too, in this latest UK suit, his wildly inconsistent — in fact, contradictory — claims, within the space of three days on the stand, under cross-examination, about the provenance of certain documents apparently only he had access to… did him in.

He could offer no credible explanation for why a document he purportedly authored in the 2008 time frame suddenly, a decade later, showed different margin gutters — ones that more closely matched a known “original” version of the genuine Satoshi white paper.

See ‘ya, chump.

Out.

The “DAME Tax” Is Included In Mr. Biden’s New Budget — Making Riot Pay Its Fair Share…

We have long explained how Riot’s “business model” — and Marathon’s as well — work an involuntary cost transfer, from the miners, to the retail consumers of Texas. This occurs, because Riot gets to upcharge during peak demand, or gets paid — to not turn on their miners, at the high-prices (gouging) rates, that all others must pay.

But in a “only in Texas” bit of insanity — the State (via ERCOT) transfers the high priced payments over to Riot — for shutting down. Over $72 million in the year 2023 alone.

That $72 million was given as corporate welfare to Riot, and even though it got the $72 million (from consumers’ pockets) it failed to make a business of mining (that is, it has STILL lost money — every year since becoming a miner — nearly eight long years now).

There is simply no doubt — no serious argument — that Riot and Marathon drive up the final price that retail (often limited means) consumers must pay (through the disconnected, privatized messed up Texas grid) for electricity, in hot mid-summer, AND in frigid snaps in January or February. Over 221 people (mostly low income seniors) died in early 2021 in their homes — due to the lack of affordable heat in Texas.

So Mr. Biden proposes that Riot and Marathon should pay a tax equal to 30% of the gross (pre-sell backs) price it is quoted, for electricity in Texas.

This is the same as charging heavy polluters (like uranium miners) the fair share of their remediation costs, under the EPA’s Super-Fund laws. Riot cannot continue to lose money and fund its losses from the pockets of unwilling / non-consenting local Texas families. [They didn’t get a vote, on whether to allow Riot to suck off their grid.]

So — here is the same release that came out in May of 2023, on the topic, from the White House (just down-dated to 2024):

One new proposal in this year’s Budget, the Digital Asset Mining Energy (DAME) excise tax, is an example of the President’s commitment to addressing both long-standing national challenges as well as emerging risks — in this case, the economic and environmental costs of current practices for mining crypto assets (cryptomining, for short). After a phase-in period, firms would face a tax equal to 30 percent of the cost of the electricity they use in cryptomining….

Cryptominers’ high energy consumption has negative spillovers on the environment, quality of life, and electricity grids where these firms locate across the country (OSTP 2022). Pollution from electricity generation falls disproportionately on low-income neighborhoods and communities of color (Thind et al. 2019). Cryptominers’ intensive and often volatile power consumption also can push up electricity prices for consumers and can increase risks for local electrical grids — straining equipment, causing service interruptions and safety hazards….

So buckle up kids, Riot may, by 2026, owe an additional $200 million in excise taxes, to be redistributed as aid to low income Texas families — from its hogging of electricity.

Now you know. Onward.

Huge “Energy-Waster” Of A Company… Invests Some Seed Money In “Waste To Energy” Company?! Hilarious!

Today, Riot Platforms dumped some of the cash it doesn’t earn, from EPS it doesn’t produce — as a vast “energy wasting” company… into a company that is actually trying to generate meaningful levels of “reclaimed” energy — from post consumer waste, in landfills — by capturing synthesized methane, down in dusty West Texas.

Got that?

Good. All this money came directly from rube-shareholders, throwing good money after bad.

And even with Bitcoin above $73,000 for part of the day today — Riot keeps falling.

Hilarious. Here (below) are the specifics (insofar as they’ve been disclosed), but since no dollar amount was disclosed, the actual cash outlay is likely under $15 million, since that would end up below the materiality threshold — which must be disclosed under SEC rules. But I suppose it is equally likely that it is a material amount, and Riot intends to bury it, in some R&D line, rather than as an equity method “investment”.

We shall see:

Reformed Energy Inc., a Texas corporation, announced today that it has secured a strategic investment from Riot Platforms, Inc. (“Riot”), marking a significant milestone for the company as it seeks to bring its unique plasma gasification technology to full commercialization.

By processing solid and liquid waste streams in its closed plasma gasification system, Reformed Energy can effectively prevent over 99% of the methane emissions and pollution that occurs with traditional waste disposal methods while reducing the physical volume of waste by about 90%. This process yields a versatile synthesis gas that can be utilized downstream for sustainable power generation and synthetic fuel production. In short, the company’s unique technology has the ability to clean up existing landfills and reduce incoming waste streams. The self-contained system does not require grid interconnection and generates carbon neutral power while actively reducing existing methane emissions….

And… Riot remains below $11.60/share on the NASDAQ. Precious — with BTC over $72,000 — an all time high water mark / bubble figure.

O U C H.

In Which Mr. Armstrong — And His Coinbase GC — File A Losing Brief… Against The SEC.

So Coinbase thinks that (even though it cannot run without ”losing” its clients’ account balances during high volume sessions — and then whining that high volume servers are “expensive”!) it is entitled to tell the SEC that agency must write all new, more relaxed rules — rather than force Armstrong and Paul Grewal (GC) to comply with clear 75 year-old black letter federal law and later cases, under Howey.

The pair of Lil Princes already lost once, on mandamus — making the same argument, in front of a different panel of judges.

And the company is being sued by SEC for refusing to follow SEC rules, as an enforcement matter. The outages two weeks ago are ongoing proof — of exactly why the SEC needed to act, via enforcement powers.

Coinbase essentially treats customers as a nuisance to be bilked for trading fees.

It owes them fiduciary duties — but almost never acts like it.

So Condor predicts (“Tiocfaidh ár lá”) this latest silly, entitled “libertarians on crack” brief will end as a dead letter.

Now you know.

Onward, grinning.

Bill Ackman Toys With Silly BTC Maximalists — On Musk’s X-itter…

I don’t like the guy — but he is smart about capital markets… and a billionaire. Indeed, this is good Saturday trivial fun.

Tonight he decided to poke a hole in the illogic on display in this latest rally (with biting sarcasm):

“…A scenario:

Bitcoin price rise leads to increased mining and greater energy use, driving up the cost of energy, causing inflation to rise and the dollar to decline, driving demand for Bitcoin and increased mining, driving demand for energy and the cycle continues.

Bitcoin goes to infinity, energy prices skyrocket, and the economy collapses.

Maybe I should buy some Bitcoin…”

But then he laughed out loud at them, on X-itter, in his next post, saying:

“…The problem of course is that it also works in reverse…”

He’s mostly right about BTC, of course — but he actually understates how dire the plight of the ‘34 Act public miners now is.

Hilarious!

Onward.

What A Crock! Daniel Kuhn’s Idiotic Op Ed…

What a steaming pile of dog crap this guy Kuhn just wrote.

It merits no serious additional reply.

So… I’ll say only a little more.

Collecting a survey does not involve a Fourth Amendment search. There is nothing “unreasonable” about a half hour survey.

Q.: if Kuhn is right, where is the search warrant, for every human that fills out the US Census form once every ten years?

There is none, because it is not… and unreasonable search, and its goal is not to charge crimes.

Damn, son. You are a… fool.

Out.

Even With Bitcoin Making New ATHs, Riot Keeps… Swooning. Anemic Production / Halvening Comin’!

Well… it is not going to come as any surprise to regular readers, here: Riot’s fortunes are now largely de-coupled from the spot price of Bitcoin — and now reflect a negative price correlation to the coin, in fact.

This is so, because as BTC rises above all-time highs, more and more miners are switched on, and difficulties keep going through the roof, to new all time highs as well… making it that much harder for Riot (and Marathon and CleanSpark) to even tread water. Each must make vast new cap ex cash investments… just to keep losing the same amount on a GAAP basis, month after month.

So we see this morning that Riot now sports a $12/something per share handle on the NASDAQ — just as it did before this last crazy exuberance in spot prices for Bitcoin. Why? Because it only mined 418 BTC in February, and didn’t sell any coin off (at these frothy spot prices), so it generated no cash. It burned cash reserves, and issued more stock — as we will soon learn in the SEC Form 10-Q.

And all the while, the “halvening” approaches — come April, Riot will see its revenue cut in half, again… with no reduction in costs to mine — in fact, a likely jump, in mining cost, overall.

D A M N.

That’s no bueno.

Out.

[U: Here’s The Settlement.] In Which Riot Has (Unwisely) Made An Enemy Of The Sierra Club…

Updated: Riot will get about $2,000 in legal fee and expense reimbursement — and the survey will roll out this summer, or fall anyway. The government has an unassailable right to author surveys. What a dumb suit that was. Do read the agreement.

Well, later tonight, we should see the settlement agreement proper. End updated portion.

But for now, We do know that Riot will have to answer the survey, after the notice and comment period expires. See this, from a letter just filed overnight:

On February 9, 2024, EIA published a 60-day notice in the Federal Register seeking comments no later than April 9, 2024 on the proposed data collection of Form EIA-862. Energy Information Administration, Agency Information Collection Proposed Extension, 89 Fed. Reg. 9,140 (Feb. 9, 2024).

EIA will review the comments received in response to the February 9, 2024 Federal Register notice. If EIA decides to go forward with proposing an information collection covering data of the type described in EIA-862, EIA will publish a notice in the Federal Register setting forth the proposed information collection, pursuant to 44 U.S.C. § 3507(a)(1)(D).

That would trigger a public comment period of at least 30 days, after which the Director of OMB could make a decision whether or not to approve the information collection. See 44 U.S.C. § 3507(b)….

But since then, the Sierra Club has correctly pointed out that the public interest needs to be represented, and has offered to do so, as amici — since the federal government’s survey drives at public policy issues — environmental and energy chief among these.

But Riot is trying to prevent the Sierra Club from weighing in, should the 14 day order expire without an agreement that the survey is proper — when issued.

That won’t go well, for Riot.

Do stay tuned. We now know Riot settled for ~$2,000 — what a hollow victory, that. The survey will still have to be answered later this year. Hilarious.

As the real mining companies I worked for during the summers of my youth learned (AMAX and Hecla, as well as a stint for what became Origin Mining in Kingman Arizona), making an “enemy” of the Sierra Club… a potent political actor… is decidedly unwise. It is bad business.

Onward, grinning.

D I L U T I O N: At Riot And Marathon — The Dominating 2024 Story & Down-Bubble.

Wow. In just the last year, Marathon DOUBLED its total outstanding shares, by issuing wildly into the NASDAQ. And this year, it disclosed overnight, it will sell an additional up to $1.5 billion worth of stock in an ATM offering.

That is stupid, money losing dilution to old shareholders, and new ones alike. Down over 17% on the day.

For its part, Riot Platforms intends to sell another $750 million in stock this year 2024. This means that since early 2018, when it had around 13 million shares outstanding — it is likely to have 25 TIMES that amount outstanding by later in 2024.

All while never ever earning a penny of GAAP net income from operations, consistently applied. [Down over 14% on the NASDAQ today.]

So it is no surprise, that even with Bitcoin spot prices trading in an irrational ~$60,000 bubble at the moment — up 40% in two months’ time… Riot and Marathon continue to fall back to Earth.

You cannot just print your stock on rolls and rolls of toilet paper, and expect that the market will not eventually notice — and flush it all.

Buckle up, buttercup.

[And… in a largely silly footnote, to a silly attempt to stop a survey (of all things), Riot opposes the Sierra Club weighing in on its strike suit — now settled. Riot has been embarrassed in the federal courts of West Texas — and that takes some real big league stupidity. Well done there, boys.]

We will see that settlement agreement by tomorrow, BTW — unless Riot violates the federal court order.

Out.

That Precious Lil’ Brian Armstrong — At Coinbase…

The level of… churlish hubris this guy exhibits… damn.

Today, as Bitcoin surged to $62,000 for a few hours, his vaunted “exchange” told many long term clients they had a zero balance.

That would prevent those clients from selling at the top, among other things. [It would also prevent buying more, if a given client thought spot prices were going to continue to rise.]

But this a-hole CEO, rather than apologize… simply says “we’re looking into it”… and “your assets are safe”.

WTAF?!

He’s not running a college dorm multi-player GTA tourney… he’s supposed to be running a serious global financial intermediary — for the next big thingTM.

And all he can say is… running servers for peak demand is… EXPENSIVE?!

This is lunacy. The SEC should add some counts to its complaints in federal court. The guy lacks the gravitas to be any form of credible financial exchange CEO. His take:

We are aware that some users may see a zero balance across their Coinbase accounts & may experience errors in buying or selling. Our team is investigating this & will provide an update shortly. Your assets are safe.

You can track this incident at http://status.coinbase.com

So… he doesn’t even acknowledge that his crash and zero error meant that many of his clients may have missed out on millions of dollars in opportunistic trading today.

It is significant that Kraken clients saw no outages. Makes one wonder if his outage really was an “accidental” outage.

Jeebus Cripes.

Out.